Estimating expansion of the range of oak processionary moth (Thaumetopoea processionea) in the UK from 2006 to 2019

1. The expansion of oak processionary moth (OPM) in South-East England continues despite ongoing efforts to control the pest since its introduction in 2006. 2. Using locations of OPM larval nests, supplied by the Forestry Commission and recorded as part of ongoing surveillance and control measures from 2006 onwards, we show that the expansion of the range of OPM in South-East England up to 2019 was biphasic with a higher rate of expansion from 2015 onwards. 3. The maximum rate of OPM range expansion in the United Kingdom from 2006 to 2014 was estimated as 1.66 km/year (95% CI = [1.22, 2.09]), whereas the 2015–2019 expansion rate was estimated as 6.17 km/year (95% CI = [5.49, 6.84]). This corresponds to an estimated species range distribution area of 7077 km2 in 2019. 4. To explain the faster expansion of OPM range from 2015 onwards, we discuss potential reasons that include: natural capability of species of both short- and long-distance dispersal; external factors such as environmental heterogeneity; a reduction of active control

Categories of SHM deployments: Technologies and capabilities

The findings of an extensive literature survey focusing on bridge structural health monitoring (SHM) deployments are presented. Conventional, maturing, and emerging technologies are reviewed as well as deployment considerations for new SHM endeavors. The lack of published calibration studies (and quantification of uncertainty studies) for new sensors is highlighted as a major concern and area for future research. There are currently very few examples of SHM systems that have clearly provided significant value to the owners of monitored structures. The results of the literature survey are used to propose a categorization system to better assess the potential outcomes of bridge SHM deployments. It is shown that SHM studies can be categorized as one (or a combination) of the following: (1) anomaly detection, (2) sensor deployment studies, (3) model validation, (4) threshold check, and (5) damage detection. The new framework aids engineers specifying monitoring systems to determine what should be measured and why, hence allowing them to better evaluate what value may be delivered to the relevant stakeholders for the monitoring investments.This work was partly funded by EPSRC Grant No. EP/K000314/1: Innovation Knowledge Centre for Smart Infrastructure and Construction.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from American Society of Civil Engineers via http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.000073

Predicting the potential for spread of emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis) in Great Britain: What can we learn from other affected areas?

Emerald ash borer (EAB) is thought to have arrived in North America and European Russia at least 10 years prior to detection. Despite heightened awareness that EAB could invade Great Britain (GB), detection in the early stages of establishment is difficult, and initial symptoms might be mistaken for Chalara ash dieback. Our results suggest that if partial resistance to EAB in Fraxinus excelsior does not significantly dampen EAB population dynamics, then EAB could establish and spread across large parts of southern England within a relatively short time period; however, further northern spread may be limited by the relatively cool climate

Effects of study design and allocation on participant behaviour-ESDA: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial

Background: What study participants think about the nature of a study has been hypothesised to affect subsequent behaviour and to potentially bias study findings. In this trial we examine the impact of awareness of study design and allocation on participant drinking behaviour. Methods/Design: A three-arm parallel group randomised controlled trial design will be used. All recruitment, screening, randomisation, and follow-up will be conducted on-line among university students. Participants who indicate a hazardous level of alcohol consumption will be randomly assigned to one of three groups. Group A will be informed their drinking will be assessed at baseline and again in one month (as in a cohort study design). Group B will be told the study is an intervention trial and they are in the control group. Group C will be told the study is an intervention trial and they are in the intervention group. All will receive exactly the same brief educational material to read. After one month, alcohol intake for the past 4 weeks will be assessed. Discussion: The experimental manipulations address subtle and previously unexplored ways in which participant behaviour may be unwittingly influenced by standard practice in trials. Given the necessity of relying on self-reported outcome, it will not be possible to distinguish true behaviour change from reporting artefact. This does not matter in the present study, as any effects of awareness of study design or allocation involve bias that is not well understood. There has been little research on awareness effects, and our outcomes will provide an indication of the possible value of further studies of this type and inform hypothesis generation

Using the theory of planned behaviour as a process evaluation tool in randomised trials of knowledge translation strategies : A case study from UK primary care

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Analysis of fiber-optic strain-monitoring data from a prestressed concrete bridge

This paper presents data from fiber-optic strain monitoring of the Nine Wells Bridge, which is a three-span, pretensioned, prestressed concrete beam-and-slab bridge located in Cambridgeshire in the United Kingdom. The original deployment at the site and the challenges associated with collecting distributed strain data using the Brillouin optical time domain reflectometry (BOTDR) technique are described. In particular, construction and deployment issues of fiber robustness and temperature effects are highlighted. The challenges of interpreting the collected data as well as the potential value of information that may be obtained are discussed. Challenges involved with relating measurements to the expected levels of prestress, including the effects due to debonding, creep, and shrinkage, are discussed and analyzed. This paper provides an opportunity to study whether two commonly used models for creep and shrinkage, adequately model data collected in field conditions.This work was supported by the following EPSRC grants: EP/D076870/1, Smart Infrastructure: Wireless Sensor Network System for Condition Assessment and Monitoring of Infrastructure; EP/I019308/1, Innovation Knowledge Centre for Smart Infrastructure and Construction; and EP/K000314/1, Innovation and Knowledge Centre for Smart Infrastructure and Construction - Collaborative Programme Tranche 1

Orientation cues for high-flying nocturnal insect migrants: do turbulence-induced temperature and velocity fluctuations indicate the mean wind flow?

Migratory insects flying at high altitude at night often show a degree of common alignment, sometimes with quite small angular dispersions around the mean. The observed orientation directions are often close to the downwind direction and this would seemingly be adaptive in that large insects could add their self-propelled speed to the wind speed, thus maximising their displacement in a given time. There are increasing indications that high-altitude orientation may be maintained by some intrinsic property of the wind rather than by visual perception of relative ground movement. Therefore, we first examined whether migrating insects could deduce the mean wind direction from the turbulent fluctuations in temperature. Within the atmospheric boundary-layer, temperature records show characteristic ramp-cliff structures, and insects flying downwind would move through these ramps whilst those flying crosswind would not. However, analysis of vertical-looking radar data on the common orientations of nocturnally migrating insects in the UK produced no evidence that the migrants actually use temperature ramps as orientation cues. This suggests that insects rely on turbulent velocity and acceleration cues, and refocuses attention on how these can be detected, especially as small-scale turbulence is usually held to be directionally invariant (isotropic). In the second part of the paper we present a theoretical analysis and simulations showing that velocity fluctuations and accelerations felt by an insect are predicted to be anisotropic even when the small-scale turbulence (measured at a fixed point or along the trajectory of a fluid-particle) is isotropic. Our results thus provide further evidence that insects do indeed use turbulent velocity and acceleration cues as indicators of the mean wind direction

Author Correction: Dynamic regulation of canonical TGFβ signalling by endothelial transcription factor ERG protects from liver fibrogenesis.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper

Phylogenetic Beta Diversity Metrics, Trait Evolution and Inferring the Functional Beta Diversity of Communities

The beta diversity of communities along gradients has fascinated ecologists for decades. Traditionally such studies have focused on the species composition of communities, but researchers are becoming increasingly interested in analyzing the phylogenetic composition in the hope of achieving mechanistic insights into community structure. To date many metrics of phylogenetic beta diversity have been published, but few empirical studies have been published. Further inferences made from such phylogenetic studies critically rely on the pattern of trait evolution. The present work provides a study of the phylogenetic dissimilarity of 96 tree communities in India. The work compares and contrasts eight metrics of phylogenetic dissimilarity, considers the role of phylogenetic signal in trait data and shows that environmental distance rather than spatial distance is the best correlate of phylogenetic dissimilarity in the study system